Several phenomena worth reflecting in domestic textile and clothing industry
The annual situation of China's textile and garment industry is worth reviewing and summarizing, which is also to lay a good foundation for the next year's sales exploration.
It is worth thinking about the following five points: 1. The pattern of cotton price inversion has not improved. The continuous expansion of cotton price difference at home and abroad is an important factor affecting the operation of the industry in 2012, the widening price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has weakened the international competitiveness of the textile industry.
Although the Federal Reserve continuously releases liquidity and the commodity market is strong and favorable for futures prices, the real economy and downstream consumption have limited bearing capacity for cotton prices.
While the domestic spot cotton price is supported, it also promotes a large number of imports of outer cotton and outer yarn, which inhibits the demand for domestic cotton.
Although terminal textile has improved slightly recently, it is difficult to expand the overall demand scale of textiles from the perspective of weak Canton Fair transactions and falling domestic clothing sales, which does not support the rise in cotton prices.
2. The international market demand is sluggish and the export prospect is not optimistic. Since this year, the export decline has been obvious. The recent data have stabilized, but it is still in a low and weak situation. Emerging markets cannot replace the position of European and American countries, the economic recovery in developed countries is weak, the unemployment rate remains high, and consumer confidence is frustrated, which has a significant negative impact on demand. It is expected that the euro zone will continue to grow at a low or zero speed next year, the textile and garment industry will face more prominent demand shortage and competitive pressure, and the export situation will not be optimistic.
3. The textile manufacturing industry is still in the process of bottoming out. The main factors for the recovery of short-term economic indicators of the industry are still affected by the Cardinal effect and the replenishment of commercial enterprises. At present, there is still a lack of specific measures to solve the cotton price problem at home and abroad, clothing is the largest terminal industry in the whole industry. If the clothing industry lacks the power to recover, it will be very difficult for the industry to recover. Combining the above factors, no matter from the perspective of the influencing factors of the real economy, still from the influence of the Cardinal effect, the profit growth rate of Chinese textile enterprises is facing greater pressure to fall back and is still in the process of bottoming out.
4. Brand clothing is troubled by inventory, and clothing sales have only increased by 2. 5% this year.
In 4%, retail enterprises increased their promotion efforts in October to increase passenger flow and drive sales growth.
The growth rate of income and net profit of key companies declined. The growth rate of outdoor clothing and high-end men's and women's clothing exceeded that of the industry, while the growth rate of casual clothing, low-end men's and women's shoes was lower than that of sub-sectors, the industry's inventory turnover rate has declined to a certain extent, reflecting the rise in inventory pressure.
Under the environment of declining economic growth and sluggish consumption, the clothing industry has been significantly impacted, and the inventory problem has become a huge pressure. Domestic brands have raised prices many times. International standards'
However, the market acceptance has not improved, and the decline in operating capacity is likely to drag down profits.
5, industry investment strategy, textile manufacturing company opportunities are not obvious, subdivision brand clothing is the focus of attention.
The new government emphasizes the stimulating effect of consumption on economic growth, the promotion of income distribution system reform and the gradual improvement of social security are the policy factors to stimulate consumption growth, and the potential demand for residents' consumption is still huge, especially in the second, third and fourth-line markets, policy factors are likely to activate this part of the consumption potential, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of outdoor sports brands and high-end men's clothing. Pathfinder: Future 3-
The industry will still maintain high growth in five years, and the first-mover enterprises are expected to gain greater advantages. The traditional sporting goods industry has touched the growth ceiling, and it will be a trend for professionals and distribution channels to switch to the outdoor industry.
We emphasize the brand selling point and technical selling point of outdoor products. With the accumulation of Pathfinders themselves and the introduction of talents, the gap in this area is narrowing. This year, the brand operation is more mature and the market share has a tendency to increase, EPS is expected to be 0 in 2013.
73 yuan, PE is 21 times, give'Recommend _ A'The rating.
Kanudilu: sales network coverage has begun to take shape, sharing high-end retail properties with international brands, and cooperation with international brands has enhanced the management and operation capabilities of stores.
At present, it has not formed an absolutely strong local brand in the high-end men's business dress and business leisure market segment. It is optimistic that the company will maintain a high expansion rhythm by taking advantage of the listing opportunity, and the market share and reputation will be strongly improved, estimated 2012-
The performance growth rate in 2013 was 55% and 39, and EPS was 1. 7/and 2.
37 yuan, target price 47 yuan, give'Highly recommended _ A'The investment rating.
This information is compiled and released by Xilong computer bag customization center.